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Independent research & observatories

The warning arrives in time.
The response does not.

Warnings about preventable harm to public goods are usually already public — just scattered. The Prevention Lab is an attempt towards assembling some of them. It observes and analyzes the interval between a credible warning and financed action, where closing it changes the outcome.

Explore the observatoriesRead the method
Scattered signal → financed actionThe interval
Scattered signalthe intervalWarningFinanced action

The interval between a credible warning and financed action is where prevention is won or lost.

Signals in view
0 / 22deepfake-robocall counts — the jury acquitted on all of them$6MFCC penalty for the fake-Biden robocall, reported still unpaidJan 2025Meta ends third-party fact-checking in the US2025Denmark moves to copyright people’s own faces$2.5Bthe five-year ambition for public-interest AI886 GBthe open dataset much of AI learned from — built by volunteers2.7%of crisis financing arranged before disaster, not after48%of least-developed countries lack adequate early warning
Latest publication
Everyone Builds on the Commons. No One Funds It.

Policy Brief · September 18, 2026 · 9 min read

Everyone Builds on the Commons. No One Funds It.

The open datasets, models and safety tools much of the AI industry learned from were assembled by volunteers on donated compute. Recognition has arrived, and so has the first real money. What no one has funded is the unglamorous work of keeping the commons current — a foreseeable, financeable shortfall.

Read the policy brief
The observatory

Each observatory, read through the same method.

Each observatory reports an observed reading beside a separate editorial judgment — with direction, sources and dates. Select one.

India

Rising capacity, uneven conversion

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Observed
reading
Growth66
Employment conversion38
Public goods34
Shock resilience60

Whether rising geopolitical option value converts into inclusive domestic capacity and credible regional public goods.

Open the India dashboard

A data indicator and an editorial judgment, reported separately — never merged into one score.

How we read a country
Watch
One issue worth acting on earlier

Climate resilience and local government

Local governments are acquiring greater climate and disaster responsibilities without corresponding finance, data or institutional capability.

Public infrastructureClimate resilienceHealth and human securityGap · Authority to responsibility, and funding to implementation
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More analysis
Spotted in Hours, Governed in Years

September 18, 2026 · 9 min read

Spotted in Hours, Governed in Years

The fake Biden robocall was caught within a day. Eighteen months later a jury acquitted the man who admitted making it, and the federal fine went unpaid. With deepfakes now routine in the 2026 campaigns, the gap that decides outcomes is the one between detection and an enforced response.

WARNINGACTION

September 11, 2026 · 5 min read

The Last Mile of Adaptation

The instruments to move disaster money before a storm exist, and they work. Why they still cover a fraction of the risk — and why sending more money closes only half of a gap that local governments now carry alone.

Warning Is Not the Bottleneck

September 11, 2026 · 5 min read

Warning Is Not the Bottleneck

In 2023, under one per cent of humanitarian funding was committed ahead of the shocks it was meant to meet — even though about a fifth of need is predictable. The failure is rarely detection; it is the interval between a credible warning and financed action.

The Prevention Brief

What we observed, and what we made of it

Occasional updates with recent observations, new analysis and what the Lab is watching next. Easy to unsubscribe.