01
🇸🇴Somalia
Horn of Africa
10of 10 dims
Drought emergency · severe hunger · acute aid shortfall
The Prevention LabSite under development
Evidence for earlier public action.
The Prevention Lab brings together data, research and reporting on geopolitical risk, public goods and governance. Its observatories show what is changing, why it matters and where earlier action may help.
Conflict · Climate · FragilityRisk board →
02
🇦🇫Afghanistan
South-Central Asia
10of 10 dims
Food insecurity · mass returns · aid withdrawal
03
🇸🇩Sudan
Northeast Africa
9of 10 dims
Famine conditions · displacement · urban warfare
Open the full dashboard →
Policy briefs
July 6, 2026 · 22 min read
Stabilizing Myanmar: Building the Conditions for a Settlement
A policy brief on how regional and external actors can help create the conditions for a negotiated settlement in Myanmar. Its central argument is that the conflict is not yet 'ripe' for negotiation — the actors who would have to sign do not yet see a reason to. The immediate task is therefore not to table a peace plan but to shape the humanitarian, economic, diplomatic, and institutional conditions under which negotiation becomes the rational choice, while preparing the settlement architecture as the destination rather than the opening move.
Observatory
Country and thematic dashboards
India — strategic autonomy, development and regional order
Pilot
India Observatory
Connects India’s great-power trajectory with jobs, public capacity, federal delivery and its role across South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
India pilot reading
Observed capacity / assessed judgment
50/56
Growth
Employment conversion
Public goods
Shock resilience
Observed data and editorial assessment are reported separately.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardNational — Nepal: strategic position, federal delivery and public value
Pilot
Nepal Observatory
Tracks Nepal's foreign relationships alongside federal delivery, jobs, migration, public services, democracy and climate risk.
Barometer snapshot
External leverage, weak conversion
39-1
Connectivity
Federal delivery
Jobs
Climate
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardNational — Myanmar: political order, civil war, human security
Pilot
Myanmar Observatory
Tracks territorial control, resistance governance, civilian protection, economic fragmentation, regional diplomacy and climate risk.
Barometer snapshot
Contested authority
24-7
Protection
Governance
Access
Resilience
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
National — Canada, external position
Pilot
Canada and the World
Examines Canada's trade, security, development finance and economic-security commitments against the domestic capacity available to deliver them.
Barometer snapshot
Diversification under pressure
57+3
Agency
Trade
Defence
Delivery
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Global — conflict, climate, fragility and anticipatory action
Pilot
Conflict, Climate & Fragility Intelligence
A source-rich intelligence dashboard connecting conflict, climate, food, water, displacement, health, governance and institutional capacity.
Barometer snapshot
Conflict, climate and fragility convergence
31-6
Conflict
Climate
Food
Institutions
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardThematic — climate adaptation and early action
Pilot
Future Climate Resilience Observatory
Follows the interval between hazard warning and institutional response, and the financing arrangements that determine whether that interval can close.
Area for attention
One issue worth acting on earlier
A focused signal, the public good at risk and practical areas for further research or programming.
The Prevention Brief
What we observed, and what we made of it
Occasional updates with recent observations, new analysis and what the Lab is watching next. Easy to unsubscribe.