The Prevention Lab
Research on preventive governance, strategic foresight, and public goods.
We study how governments, international organizations, and technology companies can anticipate emerging risks, strengthen public goods, and act before crises become inevitable.
“Institutions rarely fail to see risk. They fail to act on it in time.”
From The Architecture of Delay
Core focus areas
Six domains where anticipation, public value, and institutional design intersect.
All research areasPreventive Governance
Redesigning institutions to act before crises become inevitable.
ExploreStrategic Foresight
Anticipating discontinuities and turning foresight into decisions.
ExplorePublic Goods
Valuing and strengthening goods that markets undersupply.
ExploreAI & Information Integrity
Governing AI as public infrastructure; protecting the information environment.
ExploreClimate & Forest Governance
Early warning and governance for climate and forest risk.
ExploreInstitutional Resilience
How institutions absorb shocks and sustain capability over time.
ExploreFlagship frameworks
Three foundational frameworks anchor the Lab's research and its data products.
All frameworksThe Architecture of Delay
Why institutions act late — and how governance can be redesigned around anticipation.
A diagnostic framework explaining the structural, cognitive, and political reasons institutions consistently act after the optimal moment for intervention — and how decision systems can be rebuilt around anticipation.
Read the frameworkPublic Goods Contribution Index
Measuring how institutions create societal value, strengthen public capability, and prevent harm.
A proposed framework for measuring how much different actors — governments, technology companies, foundations, and multilateral institutions — contribute to global public goods that markets undersupply.
Read the frameworkPreventive Public Goods
Public goods whose value lies in the harm they avoid.
A concept for identifying a distinct class of public goods — those whose entire value lies in averted harm: disinformation prevention, election integrity, climate early warning, AI safety, cybersecurity, and conflict prevention.
Read the frameworkThe institutional differentiators
What distinguishes a research institution from a researcher is data ownership. Three flagship indices, in development.
Explore the indicesPublic Goods Contribution Index
Measures how much governments, multilaterals, foundations, and technology companies contribute to global public goods that markets undersupply.
Learn moreGlobal Prevention Index
Scores countries across the pillars of the Prevention Architecture — institutional capacity to detect and act on emerging risks before they become crises.
Learn moreEmerging Risk Monitor
A structured scan of emerging risks across geopolitics, AI governance, climate, information integrity, and state fragility, with response-capacity assessments.
Learn moreResearch-informed advisory support
The Prevention Lab advises governments, international organizations, foundations, and technology companies on anticipating risk and strengthening public goods.
Explore advisoryStrategic foresight
Standing and project-based foresight capacity: horizon scanning and scenario work built to feed live budget, policy, and risk decisions.
Preventive governance diagnostics
Structured assessment of where and why an institution acts late, using the Architecture of Delay framework, with concrete redesigns of decision rules and mandates.
AI public goods & information integrity
Advisory on AI safety governance, the supply of AI public goods, election integrity, and institutional response to large-scale disinformation.
Public value frameworks
Design of measurement frameworks for public goods contribution and public value, adaptable to governments, foundations, and technology companies.
Scenario planning
Facilitated scenario processes that produce decision-relevant outputs, not shelfware — connected to the institution's real choices.
Policy research & executive briefings
Rigorous, citable policy research and concise executive briefings tailored to senior decision-makers and boards.
Latest research
Working papers, policy briefs, and frameworks from the Lab.
All publicationsEmerging Risk Monitor — Inaugural Edition
A structured scan of five emerging risks across geopolitics, AI governance, climate, information integrity, and state fragility, with an assessment of institutional response capacity for each.
Preventive Public Goods: Valuing the Harm That Did Not Happen
Defines preventive public goods as a distinct class whose value lies in averted harm, and proposes funding mechanisms that do not depend on crises to justify prevention spending.
Measuring Contribution to Global Public Goods: A Concept Note for the PGCI
Sets out the rationale, scope, and proposed methodology for the Public Goods Contribution Index, including the treatment of technology companies as first-class contributors to global public goods.
A direct line to our research
A periodic note for policy practitioners and institutional leaders — new frameworks, index releases, and analysis on preventive governance. No noise.
Anticipate, before the crisis is inevitable.
Whether you are commissioning research, exploring an advisory engagement, or seeking early access to our indices, we'd like to hear from you.