OCI means Observed Capacity Index · ACJ means Assessed Capacity Judgment
POLITICAL ORDER / CIVIL WAR / HUMAN SECURITY
Track the
contested state.
Myanmar cannot be understood through battlefield updates alone. This observatory connects territorial control, resistance governance, civilian protection, economic fragmentation, regional diplomacy and climate risk.
LEGACY EXPLORATORY READING · RETAINED FOR CONTEXT
Pressure, control and
institutional capacity.
These pre-reset editorial readings preserve conflict-specific hypotheses. They do not enter OCI or ACJ, are not comparable across countries and should not be cited as current scores.
02 / SYSTEM SIGNALS
What is moving now
01 · Conflict
Territorial control remains fragmented
02 · DisplacementConflict and disasters repeatedly uproot communities
03 · HumanitarianAccess gaps determine who receives assistance
04 · EconomyConflict is remaking trade and household survival
05 · ClimateHazards overlap with conflict geography
06 · PoliticsMilitary rule has not produced governable order
07 · RegionalNeighbours prioritize different border and connectivity risks
08 · Illicit economyExtraction and narcotics connect to armed finance
03 / KNOWLEDGE OBSERVATORY
Evidence—and the
frames around it.
Academic research, journalism, policy analysis and operational data illuminate different parts of the same conflict system.
01 · Academic
Journal of Contemporary Asia
Post-coup resistance, political economy and contested authority
02 · AcademicCritical Asian Studies
Social movements, ethnicity, federalism and military power
03 · JournalismFrontier Myanmar
Locally grounded reporting on conflict and communities
04 · JournalismMyanmar Now
Investigative reporting on military rule and resistance
05 · Think tankInternational Crisis Group
Conflict dynamics, diplomacy and policy options
06 · Think tankISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
Regional diplomacy, political economy and ASEAN framing
07 · DataACLED
Geocoded political violence, actors and event trends
08 · HumanitarianMyanmar Information Management Unit
Maps, assessments and operational datasets
04 / FRAMING TRACKER
Seven ways to
read Myanmar.
Who controls territory and coercive power?
Can resistance build an alternative order?
Can ethnic autonomy and national coordination coexist?
Who is exposed, displaced and unreachable?
How do extraction, taxation and sanctions reshape incentives?
How do neighbours manage borders and instability?
Where do shocks overwhelm conflict-affected systems?
METHOD + SOURCES
Evidence in a
contested environment.
Access limits and disputed claims require corroboration.
- Normalize indicators to a 0–100 capacity scale.
- Invert violence and displacement measures.
- Track level and 12-month direction separately.
- Flag access bias and contested claims.
Common method
How to read
this country case.
Six dimensions organize the evidence for Myanmar Observatory. Country-specific signals and sources appear in the dashboard above.
FULL METHODOLOGY ↗01Economic conversion
02Public-goods delivery
03Institutional capacity
04Shock resilience
05Civic and information integrity
06External conversion
Observed Capacity Index (OCI)Comparable public data, scored only when indicators, years and peer groups are disclosed.
Assessed Capacity Judgment (ACJ)Editorial interpretation, kept separate from observed data and presented with sources and caveats.