OCI means Observed Capacity Index · ACJ means Assessed Capacity Judgment
Connects India’s great-power trajectory with jobs, public capacity, federal delivery and its role across South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
01 / Six-dimension convergence barometer
India’s economic and diplomatic reach is growing faster than employment, public services and civic confidence. The six dimensions show where observed capacity is strong and where interpretation still depends on disclosed judgment.
Reviewed 23 August 2026 · 13 public observations across 2023–2025; three disclosed editorial assessments
Whether growth and investment become productive work, incomes and fiscal room.
Fast growth lifts the reading, but labour-force participation and access to secure work pull it down.
Whether institutions provide health, education, infrastructure and essential services.
Electricity access is nearly universal, while health spending, longevity and internet use remain much more uneven.
Whether public institutions can coordinate, implement and account for decisions.
Several states deliver effectively, but large differences in administrative and fiscal capability limit the national reading.
Whether the economy, public institutions and communities can absorb disruption.
Savings and moderate inflation provide buffers, while limited trade integration narrows some routes to recovery.
Whether people can participate, scrutinize power and rely on an open information environment.
Competitive elections persist alongside documented pressure on independent media, civil society and dissent.
Whether foreign relationships and strategic leverage produce durable domestic or regional value.
India has more diplomatic choices and supplies more regional capacity, but delivery delays and political mistrust reduce the value converted from that reach.
Underlying evidence4 observed series · 4 assessments
Pipeline run2026-08-23
Median data vintage2025 · oldest 2023
ReleasePrototype · v2026Q3
Recent domestic trends and signals
People rated their lives at 4.536 on average. India ranked 116th, but the reported score is the more useful measure.
World Happiness Report 2026 ↗Domestic trustHigh, but narrowerOverall trust remains relatively high, yet the income trust gap is 16 points and nearly one in two respondents show an insular mindset.
Edelman Trust Barometer 2026 · online survey ↗State–business concentrationContested concernThe perception of state capture is not a national polling result. It is supported by documented political-finance opacity, rising corporate concentration and extreme wealth concentration.
Supreme Court electoral-bonds judgment; APU concentration study ↗Youth and examination protestsVisible grievanceA sustained 2026 protest wave connected examination irregularities with unemployment, accountability and unequal opportunity.
Associated Press, July 2026 ↗Ladakh autonomy protestsTerritorial distrustDeadly clashes in 2025 reflected persistent demands for statehood, constitutional safeguards and greater control over local decisions.
Associated Press, September 2025 ↗Farm income protestsUnkept commitmentsRenewed farmer mobilization signalled continuing distrust over price guarantees, incomes and whether earlier commitments were fulfilled.
Associated Press, 2024 ↗Protests show organized grievances, not national opinion. “State capture” and “crony capitalism” are contested perceptions supported by political-finance and concentration evidence—not settled findings about every state institution or firm.
Recent regional and international trends and signals
The 36-country median is narrowly positive, but almost as many—41%—view India unfavourably.
Pew Global Attitudes Survey 2026 ↗Neighbourhood attitudes7–79% favourableViews range from 79% in Sri Lanka to 42% in Bangladesh and 7% in Pakistan. Bangladesh fell 15 points from 2024.
Pew South Asia survey 2026 ↗Selected major partnersMixedFavourable views stand at 71% in the UK, 51% in Canada, 45% in the US and 44% in Australia.
Pew Global Attitudes Survey 2026 ↗ASEAN policy community38.5% trustTrust slightly exceeds distrust, but doubts remain about India’s ability to sustain leadership beyond its immediate region.
ISEAS 2026 · stakeholder survey ↗Iran and principled voiceStrategic silence?India’s delayed response to the Iran war and silence after the Minab school strike prompted claims that pragmatic alignment is displacing its traditional voice on sovereignty and civilian protection. Supporters call it calibrated diplomacy.
Carnegie Endowment; competing Indian commentary, 2026 ↗Survey populations and questions differ. The Iran assessment is an active policy debate, not a scored fact: critics see a departure from non-alignment and civilian-protection principles; defenders see restraint designed to preserve room for diplomacy.
02 / Issue signals
03 / Knowledge observatory
Different sources answer different questions. This reading list brings official data, research, rights monitoring and journalism into the same view.
Research on how administrative capability shapes implementation across states and sectors.
OPEN SOURCE ↗AcademicWork on jobs, firms and the movement of labour into more productive activity.
OPEN SOURCE ↗PolicyWorld Bank analysis of growth, trade, employment and reform priorities.
OPEN SOURCE ↗PolicyThe government’s annual account of economic conditions and policy choices.
OPEN SOURCE ↗DataOfficial data on employment, consumption, industry and social conditions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗DataMacroeconomic, financial, state-finance and household indicators.
OPEN SOURCE ↗RightsAn external assessment of political rights and civil liberties, with a published method.
OPEN SOURCE ↗JournalismData-led reporting on elections, the economy, welfare and public institutions.
OPEN SOURCE ↗Think tankResearch on political economy, technology, security and India’s external relations.
OPEN SOURCE ↗04 / Framing tracker
These are competing interpretations, not additional scores.
Economic scale, military capability and diplomatic reach are expanding.
DominantGrowth is judged by whether it creates broad, productive and secure work.
PersistentState-level institutions produce sharply different development outcomes.
UnderusedIndia seeks partnerships without surrendering freedom of action.
DominantElectoral competition persists amid disputes over institutions, rights and media freedom.
ContestedIndia’s influence depends on how neighbouring societies experience its power.
RisingNational growth and strategic reach can conceal large differences in jobs, services, administrative capability and civic conditions. New research should trace how the same central policy or external investment produces different outcomes across states—and identify which institutional arrangements explain the difference.
05 / Prevention gap
This module will date the first credible warning, the first authorized response and the first financing for a small set of named risks. No lag is published until each milestone has a defensible source.
Case definition and warning anchor under review. Response and financing dates are not yet coded.
Not scoredTracked as a conversion problem; it will enter this panel only if a specific warning and accountable response can be dated.
Case boundary pending06 / Method and sources
Known limitations: comparator universes vary by indicator; several flows use single-year values; electricity access is saturated; and unemployment can misread low participation. The common dimensions simplify the presentation but do not discard the underlying evidence.
Growth, trade, debt, population and development indicators
Military expenditure, arms transfers and security burden
Electoral, liberal and participatory democracy series
Political rights and civil-liberties assessments
Press-freedom conditions and methodology
Human development, inequality and capability indicators
Official or specialist country source
Official or specialist country source
Official or specialist country source
Official or specialist country source
3/3 indicators · high confidence · observations 2025
Measures current expansion, productive depth and income capacity rather than headline growth alone.
3/3 indicators · high confidence · observations 2025
Tests whether economic scale is translating into participation and broad access to work.
4/4 indicators · high confidence · observations 2023–2025
Combines essential service access, health outcomes and the digital capability needed to use public systems.
3/3 indicators · high confidence · observations 2025
Uses fiscal, trade and savings buffers as an initial measure of capacity to absorb external shocks.
Lowy Asia Power Index; MEA partnership record · editorial assessment; rubric publication pending
Expanding diplomatic and minilateral reach, with uneven implementation across the neighbourhood.
MOSPI state-level series; programme implementation evidence · editorial assessment; rubric publication pending
Strong delivery in some states, but wide subnational variation limits the national reading.
MEA project record; regional connectivity implementation · editorial assessment; rubric publication pending
India supplies growing regional capacity, though delivery and trust remain uneven.
V-Dem; Freedom House; RSF · editorial assessment; rubric publication pending
Competitive politics persists alongside documented pressure on rights and the press environment.
Open data ledger
Values are the latest observations returned at refresh time. The comparative score is India's direction-adjusted percentile among reporting economies—not a target or a grade.
Cite this release
The Prevention Lab (2026), India Observatory: Prototype release v2026Q3, accessed [date], thepreventionlab.org/observatory/india/dashboard.
What changed
The earlier mixed composite is deprecated. OCI and ACJ are now separate; data timestamps and known method limitations are visible. No factual corrections are logged for this release.