How long does it take to move from the first credible warning to the first substantive action?
The Decision Delay Index turns the prevention paradox into a number. For a named risk class with identifiable institutional responsibility, it dates the first credible, mandated warning and the first legally binding or operationally effective action, and reports the delay between them.
The coding rules are fixed before any case is scored — so definitions cannot be tuned to fit a desired result — and every score reports how sensitive it is to the definitional choices that drive it. A wide sensitivity range is itself a finding: it signals that the headline number is definition-dependent and must be read with its anchors.
All milestone dates are cited from public sources, and warnings must have proved substantially correct, so the index does not reward alarms that were right only by luck.
How it is coded
Unit of analysis
A specific, nameable risk class with identifiable institutional responsibility.
First credible warning
The earliest dated, mandated assessment that names the risk and implies action.
First substantive action
The earliest binding, resourced, or operationally effective measure targeting it.
Delay
Whole months from warning to action, measured on the primary anchors.
Sensitivity range
The span between the earliest defensible warning and the strictest action.
Signal quality
A check that the warning proved substantially correct, not lucky.